Fantasy · NFL

Johnston and Robinson Are the Receivers the Draft Room Is Missing

By Wyatt Deane — Wyatt spent nine seasons breaking down all-22 for a small-college staff before he started betting the games he was already charting. He reads football through situation and personnel: who is on the field on third down, who wins the line of scrimmage, and how a short week changes both.

Fri, Aug 28, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

The consensus in your draft room is that the late rounds belong to handcuff running backs and names you recognize from last season. I see it the other way: the market is still pricing a handful of receivers and one Tampa Bay back far below where their roles actually sit, and it is overpaying for a couple of rookie rushers whose paths to touches are blocked. We are one week from real football, so treat every number as a season-long statement, not a Week 1 verdict. The sample that matters is the full 16 or 17 games, and that is exactly where these gaps show up.

Start Quentin Johnston. I have him 59th on my board and the market drafts him 99th, so you are getting him 40 picks later than his role deserves. He put up 12.7 points per game last season, I have him for 12.9 this year, and he faces an Arizona defense ranked 15th against receivers in Week 1. The Chargers' schedule ranks sixth-easiest for receivers the rest of the way. That is a volume receiver with a soft opening draw and a friendly season ahead, and you can take him a round and a half after the room thinks he goes.

Start Wan'Dale Robinson for the same reason, just tighter. I have him 58th, the market takes him 87th, a 29-pick gap. He averaged 13.6 points per game last year, I have him for 13.2, and he is on a new Tennessee team where the target tree is his to claim. The Jets rank 16th against receivers, and the rest-of-season schedule sits 18.8, basically neutral. He is a safe floor in full PPR who costs a mid-round pick for late-round production.

Sit Dylan Sampson. This is the clearest overpay on the board. I have him 333rd and the market drafts him 200th, which means you are paying 133 picks for a player I have at 6.0 points per game. He is the handcuff to Quinshon Judkins in Cleveland, and Week 1 brings a Jacksonville defense ranked third against running backs, the toughest kind of opening draw. The trending adds say the room is chasing him; let them.

Sit Emmett Johnson the same way. I have him 320th, the market takes him 201st, a 119-pick gap, and I have him at 6.8 points per game. He is the handcuff to Kenneth Walker III in Kansas City, and the Chiefs open against a Denver defense ranked first against running backs. That is the single worst positional matchup in football for Week 1. You are drafting a lottery ticket at a price that assumes he already won.

Claim Kenny Gainwell. I have him 68th, the market drafts him 95th, 27 picks of daylight. He is good for 11.8 points per game over 16.8 games, and he is the handcuff to Bucky Irving on a Tampa Bay team that opens against Cincinnati, the softest running back defense in the league at rank 32. Even as a backup he carries standalone value, and if Irving misses time you have a workhorse on the best Week 1 draw a back can ask for.

Watch the practice reports before you lock anything. Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, J.K. Dobbins and Kaelon Black are all listed questionable, and each one of those statuses reshapes the backfield behind him. If McCaffrey sits, the San Francisco backfield changes entirely; if Mahomes sits, so does the Kansas City passing game. Do not finalize a lineup until Friday evening.

Draft the gap, not the name, and you will come out ahead of the room more weeks than not.