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Kent State vs. Sacramento State Prediction and Pick: Deane's Best Bet for Friday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Fri, Oct 30, 2026, 7:16 AM ET

The late window on Friday's three-game card sends Kent State out to Sacramento State for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Week 9. Neither team has found any way to score this season, and that is the whole ballgame for bettors. This comes down to whether two offenses stuck at the bottom of the national scoring ranks can suddenly find points against defenses that have given up plenty.

The Pick

Pick: Kent State/Sacramento State Under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kent State is scoring 14.9 points per game through 8 games, and that ranks 138th out of 138 FBS teams. Dead last in the country. Sacramento State is barely better at 15.3 points per game, 134th of 138. When two of the four worst scoring offenses in college football share a field, the total has to do a lot of work to get over.

Neither team has a run game that can change that math. The Hornets average 3.4 yards per carry and 100.9 rushing yards per game, and the Golden Flashes allow 4.1 yards per carry, which sits near the middle in run defense. So Sacramento State is not going to line up and mash its way to long, easy touchdown drives. And when the Hornets do get into third down, they convert just 32.7% of the time, 123rd of 138 FBS teams. Drives stall. Punts follow. That is how an Under cashes.

The turnover picture adds to it. Sacramento State is -9 in turnover margin through 8 games, which means the Hornets keep handing the ball back and wasting the possessions they do get. Short fields for Kent State sound scary until you remember the Golden Flashes are the worst scoring offense in the country and have shown no ability to cash those in.

The honest risk is the defenses. Sacramento State allows 32.9 points per game, 126th of 138, and Kent State allows 30.5, so both units can be had. If this turns into a sloppy game with busted coverages and short fields, points can pile up in a hurry even between bad offenses. But bad offenses are bad for a reason, and asking these two to clear this number is asking them to nearly double what they usually produce together. I will take the Under.