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Panthers vs. Packers Prediction, Odds and Pick for Thursday, Oct. 29

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 7:01 AM ET

The Carolina Panthers head to Green Bay to face the Packers on Thursday night at 8:15 p.m. ET, the only game on the NFL slate. The spread has the Packers as 3.5-point favorites. This one gets decided on third down, where the Packers have been one of the worst teams in football. I have two plays for this game, one on the side and one on a player prop.

The Pick

Pick: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-104 at Caesars)

The money is screaming Carolina. Bettors are putting 54% of their tickets on the Panthers, but 92% of the actual money is on them. That gap tells me the sharper, bigger bettors are on the Panthers, and I am not going to argue with them.

Carolina's offense gives them a real chance to keep this close. The Panthers are scoring 26.5 points per game through 6 games, 6th in the NFL. They can move the ball and put points on the board, which is what you need when you are getting a field goal plus a hook.

Green Bay, meanwhile, has struggled to sustain drives all season. The Packers are converting just 33.7% of their third downs, 29th in the NFL. They are scoring 20.6 points per game through 7 games, 25th in the league. When they do get into the red zone, they only punch it in for a touchdown 48% of the time. That is a team that has trouble finishing drives against a top-10 scoring offense.

What worries me is the Panthers defense. Carolina is allowing 27.7 points per game, 28th in the NFL, so they are not exactly a lock to keep Green Bay off the scoreboard. But I do not need them to be. I need the Panthers to lose by fewer than 3.5 points or win outright, and with the way both offenses and defenses profile, this feels like a game that stays within a field goal. The smart money agrees.

Prop Pick: Jordan Love

Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-141 at BetRivers)

Jordan Love has been a touchdown machine this season. He has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 7 of his last 10 games, and he is averaging 1.9 per game this year. In 7 games, he has thrown 2 touchdowns in 6 of them and 1 in the other. That kind of consistency is what I want when I am betting a player prop.

The game environment supports it too. The total is 47 with the Packers favored by 3.5, which works out to about 25.3 implied points for Green Bay. If they hit that number, Love is almost certainly throwing at least two touchdowns. He did this last season too, averaging 1.7 passing touchdowns per game and clearing 1.5 in 8 of 16 games.

The risk is the Panthers pass defense. Carolina is allowing 219.3 passing yards per game, 9th-fewest in the NFL, and 5.7 yards per attempt, 8th-fewest. They are not giving up big plays through the air. But Love has been finding the end zone twice a game all season, and I am betting he does it again.