Best Bets · MLB

MLB Best Bets Today: 1 Pick for Monday, Oct. 12

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Mon, Oct 12, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Two MLB games on Monday, the first one at 5 p.m. ET, and my money is on the early one. I'm going under in Los Angeles at Milwaukee, where the pitching matchup is the whole story.

Dodgers vs. Brewers, 5 p.m. ET

Pick: Dodgers/Brewers Under 7 (-111 at DraftKings)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto against Logan Henderson is the kind of matchup that keeps a total low. Yamamoto has a 2.53 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and a 25.7% strikeout rate over 185 innings in 28 starts this season. Henderson has been just as good, with a 2.47 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 29.6% strikeout rate over 98.1 innings in 18 starts. Both guys are rolling right now too. Yamamoto has allowed 3 earned runs in 20 innings over his last three starts with 21 strikeouts. Henderson has given up 4 earned runs in 15 innings over his last three with 17 strikeouts.

The Brewers bullpen backs Henderson with a 3.40 ERA this season, 3rd in MLB, so Milwaukee can shorten the game if Henderson gives them six strong. American Family Field also plays as a pitcher-friendly park, about 10% below average for run scoring, which matters in a game with a total this tight. The Dodgers have already clinched the NL West, so there's no urgency pushing them into a slugfest either.

What worries me is the bats. The Dodgers have a .766 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 1st in MLB, and the Brewers are right behind them at .759, 2nd in MLB. If either starter has an off night, this number can get beat. I'm betting they don't.