Underdogs · NCAAF

Moss's 3 College Football Underdogs to Back on Saturday

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:20 AM ET

Saturday's board is loaded, and I keep coming back to the same three spots where the points feel like a gift. All three of these dogs have a real edge somewhere in the matchup, and none of them need to win outright to cash. Here is who I'm backing and why.

Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall, 7 p.m. ET

Pick: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4 (-108 at DraftKings)

Marshall's defense is the reason this number is too big. The Thundering Herd are giving up 35 points per game, which ranks 129th out of 138 FBS teams, and they sit 115th nationally in SP+. That is not a defense that should be favored by four points against anybody with a pulse on offense.

Coastal Carolina can throw it, and that's where this game gets lopsided in the dog's favor. The Chanticleers gain 8 yards per pass attempt, and Marshall is allowing 8.6 per attempt, 129th in the country. Add in a Thundering Herd offense scoring just 22.2 points per game with a minus-4 turnover margin, and I don't see where the separation comes from. What worries me is the line moving from +3 to +4, because somebody keeps betting Marshall. I'll take the points anyway in a game that profiles like a toss-up, rain and wind at Joan C. Edwards Stadium included.

Miami (OH) vs. Massachusetts, 2 p.m. ET

Pick: Massachusetts Minutemen +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Miami (OH) wants to run the ball, and the Minutemen don't let anybody run the ball. The RedHawks average 3.3 yards per carry and 100.4 rushing yards per game, while the Minutemen allow 2.9 yards per carry, 19th in the FBS in run defense. Take away a team's only real plan and the points get very valuable.

The rest of the matchup leans the same way. Miami's defense is allowing 29.2 points per game, 114th of 138 FBS teams, and the RedHawks are giving up 8 yards per pass attempt against a Minutemen offense that gains 8 per attempt. The Minutemen are also plus-8 in turnover margin through five games, and their defense allows just 17.8 points per game, 34th in the country. The line moving from +2.5 to +4.5 tells you the market disagrees with me, and only 34% of the money is on the Minutemen. Fine. I'll take the better defense and the hook.

Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech, 7:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +3 (-108 at DraftKings)

The efficiency ratings say these teams are closer than the records suggest, and the wrong team is favored. Louisiana Tech ranks 108th nationally in SP+, and the Bulldogs defense is allowing 29 points per game, 113th of 138 FBS teams. Louisiana's defense allows 19.4 per game, 40th in the country. That gap matters more than home field.

The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-1 with a plus-49 point differential and a conference win already in the bank, and they're catching three points against a Bulldogs team that is 2-2 overall despite being 2-0 at home. I like backing a dog that can actually defend, because one stop late is the difference between a cover and a bad beat. The honest concern is Louisiana Tech's offense, which is scoring 36 points per game through four, 40th in the FBS. But that unit hasn't faced a defense this good yet, and three points in a game I have as a coin flip is a bet I'll make every time.