Best Bets · MLB

MLB Best Bets Today: 1 Pick for Saturday, Oct. 10

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:16 AM ET

There is only one MLB game on the board Saturday, with the White Sox and Guardians set for an 8 p.m. ET start. That makes this a short card, but there is still a clear betting angle. I am looking at the total, and I like this game to get past 7 runs.

White Sox vs. Guardians, 8 p.m. ET

Pick: White Sox/Guardians Over 7 (-112 at Caesars · play to -120)

Sean Burke has not exactly been locking teams down lately. Over his last three starts, he has allowed 9 earned runs in 12.2 innings, good for a 6.39 ERA. He has still punched out 14 hitters in that stretch, so there is some swing-and-miss here, but the run prevention has been rough and that matters a lot on a total this low.

The bigger issue is what happens after him. The White Sox bullpen has some tired arms, with Sean Newcomb at 62 pitches, Hagen Smith at 48 pitches and Tyler Davis at 48 pitches over the last three days. That is not ideal when you are asking a staff to keep the Guardians quiet, especially with Cleveland scoring 6.5 runs per game over the last two weeks and posting a 1.035 OPS in that span.

These teams have also played 13 times this season and averaged 8.8 combined runs per game, which fits the over. The one thing giving me pause is that Cleveland has a .706 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 24th in MLB. Still, with Burke's recent form and the state of the White Sox pen, I think this game gets loose enough.