Best Bets · MLB
MLB Best Bets Today: 1 Pick for Monday, Oct. 26
By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.
One game on the Monday card, Brewers at Rays at 8 p.m. ET, so there's no room to spread the action around.
Brewers vs. Rays, 8 p.m. ET
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+103 at Caesars)
Robert Gasser has been dealing. Over his last three starts he's given up 2 earned runs in 18 innings, a 1.00 ERA, with 16 strikeouts. That's the kind of run prevention that travels, and he's catching a Tampa Bay lineup that hasn't hit lefties all year. The Rays own a .679 OPS against left-handed pitching, 25th in MLB.
The Brewers can hit right-handed pitching, and that's what Tampa Bay is throwing. Milwaukee has a .759 OPS against righties this season, 2nd in MLB, and the lineup is backed by a bullpen with a 3.40 ERA, 3rd in the league. This is a 103-win team playing its best baseball, 8-2 over the last 10, and a 48-33 road record says the trip doesn't bother them. The Rays also come in with a taxed pen, Kevin Kelly at 47 pitches and Steven Matz at 39 over the last three days.
What worries me is Freddy Peralta on the other side, 1 earned run in 16 innings over his last three starts. If he deals, this gets tight. But Milwaukee's own pen has some fatigue too, with Aaron Ashby at 48 pitches and Abner Uribe at 41, so both teams are in the same boat late. I'll take the better lineup against the tired arms.
The Play
- Milwaukee Brewers ML: +103