Best Bets · NFL

NFL Week 6 Best Bets: 4 Picks for Sunday

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 3:30 AM ET

Twelve games on the Sunday card, starting with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in Jacksonville and rolling straight through the afternoon. I'm on two home favorites of different shapes, a home dog in a pick'em, and one total where the money has made up its mind.

Texans vs. Jaguars, 9:30 a.m. ET

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 (-113 at BetRivers)

This one comes down to whether Houston can run the ball, and nothing about the matchup says they can. The Texans average 3 yards per carry and 66.6 rushing yards per game, and they're walking into the best run defense in football. The Jaguars allow 2.8 yards per carry, first in the NFL, and that defense as a whole is giving up 14 points per game, second in the league.

When a one-dimensional offense meets a defense built to erase that one dimension, I lay the short number. The money agrees: 51% of bets and 79% of the money are on Jacksonville. The Jaguars are also +5 in turnover margin through 5 games, so they should win the field position battle all morning.

The worry is Houston throwing it. The Texans gain 6.7 yards per pass attempt and Jacksonville gives up 6.8 per attempt, 25th in the NFL, so if the Texans hit enough chunk plays through the air this stays close. I don't think they sustain drives well enough to matter.

Bears vs. Falcons, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +1 (-109 at BetRivers)

Atlanta throws it at 6.9 yards per pass attempt, and Chicago's pass defense is giving up 7.8 per attempt, 31st in the NFL. That's the ballgame in one line. The Falcons can also lean on a ground game averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 158.8 rushing yards per game, so they have two ways to move it.

On the other side, the Bears offense has real problems finishing. They score touchdowns just 42.9% of the time in the red zone and they're -5 in turnover margin through 5 games. Caleb Williams is listed as questionable, and if he's limited or out, a struggling offense gets thinner.

The Falcons are -5 in turnover margin through 5 games themselves, so this isn't a clean spot for Atlanta. But getting a point at home in what's essentially a pick'em, with the better quarterback situation and the better matchup through the air, I'll take the Falcons.

Jets vs. Patriots, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: Jets/Patriots Under 43.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

The money has spoken loudly on this total: 71% of bets and 99% of the money are on the under. That's about as one-sided as splits get, and I see why.

Games involving these two teams have averaged 39.3 total points this season, well under this number. New England scores 22 points per game, 19th in the NFL, so neither side has the firepower to blow this open. Jets tight end Kenyon Sadiq is questionable, which doesn't help an offense already near the bottom of the league and facing a ton of injuries at key positions.

If Drake Maye gets loose early, this could sweat, but everything about these two rosters points to a grind.

Saints vs. Giants, 1 p.m. ET

Pick: New York Giants +0.5 (-110 at Fanatics)

New Orleans can't stop anybody, ranking towards the bottom of the league in Def. EPA/Play and Success Rate. New Orleans is also -6 in turnover margin through 5 games, sitting at 1-4 with a -33 point differential, and Alvin Kamara is listed as questionable, which would strip one of their offense's only weapons at RB.

The Saints only gain 5.6 per attempt, so there's no mismatch favoring the road team through the air either.

What cuts against me: the Saints score touchdowns 77.8% of the time in the red zone, the best rate you'll see, and they convert 44% of their third downs, seventh in the NFL. If they sustain drives and finish them, the Giants have to score to keep pace. I'll bet a 31st-ranked defense can't hold up for four quarters, and I trust Jameis Winston to grind out some points on offense.