Parlay · NCAAF

College Football Week 6 Parlay: 3-Leg Parlay for Saturday, Oct. 10 (+570)

By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 7:20 AM ET

I'm tying together three favorites laying big numbers on Saturday, with Memphis, Toledo and Tennessee all asked to win by two touchdowns or more. The common thread is mismatches in efficiency and scoring, plus one leg where the money is already leaning hard. A parlay needs every leg to win, so one flat favorite sinks the whole ticket.

UAB vs. Memphis, 7 p.m. ET

Pick: Memphis Tigers -14.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

The money has made up its mind on this one, with 58% of bets and 99% of the money landing on Memphis. That tracks with the gap between these teams, because UAB ranks 118th nationally in SP+ while the Tigers are scoring 38.6 points per game through 5 games, 24th in the FBS. Memphis also averages 6.1 yards per carry and 250.4 rushing yards per game against a Blazers front allowing 4.5 yards per carry, so the ground game should keep the scoreboard moving.

What gives me a little pause is that Memphis itself is only 63rd in SP+, so this is not one of the better teams in the country laying the wood. The line moving from -14 to -14.5 also means you're buying a slightly worse number than early bettors got.

Buffalo vs. Toledo, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Toledo Rockets -18.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Buffalo can't throw it, and that's the whole game. The Bulls gain 5.1 yards per pass attempt while Toledo's defense gives up 5.9 per attempt, 24th in the FBS, and Buffalo ranks 124th in SP+ overall. The Rockets are scoring 42.4 points per game, 13th in the FBS, against a Bulls defense allowing 30.6 per game, 116th of 138 FBS teams.

The rest of the profile is just as lopsided, with Buffalo scoring 20.4 points per game and Toledo adding 200.4 rushing yards per game against a run defense ranked 113th. The one thing I'd flag is the line moving from -19.5 to -18.5, which suggests some early money came in on the dog.

Tennessee vs. Arkansas, 4:15 p.m. ET

Pick: Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Tennessee is 14th nationally in SP+, and Arkansas doesn't have the offense to threaten that. The Razorbacks are scoring 19.8 points per game through 5 games, 116th of 138 FBS teams, while the Volunteers defense allows 15.2 per game, 20th in the FBS. Arkansas also averages just 2.8 yards per carry and 92.2 rushing yards per game, so there's no ground game to lean on.

The pass defense numbers make it worse for Arkansas, which gains 6.5 yards per attempt against a Volunteers unit giving up 5.5 per attempt, 7th in the FBS. The Razorbacks defense allowing 28.4 points per game means Tennessee should have room to cover even if the offense is just average. If there's a worry, it's laying nearly two touchdowns on the road in conference play, but the gap here is wide enough to justify it.

Parlay: Memphis Tigers -14.5 + Toledo Rockets -18.5 + Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 (+570 at the prices listed)

3-leg parlay at the listed prices: +570