Parlay · NCAAF
College Football Week 8 Parlay: 3-Leg Parlay for Saturday, Oct. 24 (+590)
By Marisol Vega — Spent ten years grading tickets at a sportsbook. Marisol covers line movement, steam and closing-line value, and she writes the daily card.
Forty-four games on the board Saturday, and I'm tying three favorites together and laying the points with each one. Northwestern, Arizona and Louisiana all hold real edges in the matchup numbers, and together the three legs pay about +590. Just remember a parlay needs every leg to win, so one flat favorite sinks the whole ticket.
Rutgers vs. Northwestern, 12 p.m. ET
Pick: Northwestern Wildcats -15.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Northwestern sits 26th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, and that gap shows up everywhere in this matchup. The Wildcats gain 9.8 yards per pass attempt against a Rutgers defense giving up 7.7, and they average 4.8 yards per carry and 191.5 rushing yards per game against a Scarlet Knights front allowing 5.6 per carry, 135th of 138 FBS teams. Rutgers is also allowing 31.8 points per game, 118th in the country, while Northwestern's defense gives up just 17, 25th in the FBS.
The one thing giving me pause is the line drifting from -16.5 down to -15.5, and Rutgers does score 31.2 points per game. I still think the Wildcats control both lines of scrimmage and pull away late.
Iowa State vs. Arizona, 7:30 p.m. ET
Pick: Arizona Wildcats -10.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Arizona throws it for 9 yards per attempt, and Iowa State's secondary is surrendering 7.7 per attempt. That's the engine of this bet. The Wildcats rank 15th nationally in SP+, convert 55.6% of their third downs, 4th in the FBS, and score 35.7 points per game while their defense allows only 19. Sustained drives plus a top-32 scoring defense is how double-digit covers happen.
The line has moved from -9.5 up to -10.5, so the value is thinner than it was, and Iowa State's defense allows just 21.7 points per game. If the Cyclones keep Arizona in the 20s, this gets sweaty, but I expect the Wildcats' passing edge to win out over four quarters.
Louisiana vs. Southern Miss, 5 p.m. ET
Pick: Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -10 (-108 at DraftKings)
Southern Miss can't stop anybody. The Golden Eagles allow 32.7 points per game, 126th of 138 FBS teams, and they rank 128th nationally in SP+. Louisiana averages 4.7 yards per carry and 199.4 rushing yards per game, and Southern Miss gives up 5.2 per carry, 125th in the country in run defense. The Golden Eagles also convert just 32.9% of their third downs, so the Ragin' Cajuns should own time of possession all afternoon.
Louisiana ranks only 63rd in SP+ itself, so this isn't a juggernaut laying points on the road. But the line has ticked down from -10.5 to -10, and against this defense the Ragin' Cajuns' ground game should be enough to clear it.
Parlay: Northwestern Wildcats -15.5 + Arizona Wildcats -10.5 + Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -10 (+590 at the prices listed)
The Play
- Northwestern Wildcats -15.5: -112
- Arizona Wildcats -10.5: -112
- Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -10: -108
3-leg parlay at the listed prices: +590