Underdogs · NCAAF

Moss's 2 College Football Underdogs to Back on Saturday

By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 10:30 AM ET

Week 7 has 49 games on the board, and I'm not laying points with anybody today. The two spots I like are both teams getting points despite efficiency ratings that say they belong on the same field as the favorite. Missouri at Ole Miss in the afternoon, Nebraska at Oregon in the late window, and I'll take the points in both.

Missouri vs. Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. ET

Pick: Missouri Tigers +4.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Missouri ranks 13th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, and the Tigers are catching 4.5 points on the road. That's a number that says these teams are close to even, and the market seems to agree. This game opened with Missouri at +6 and it's been bet down to +4.5, so the early money landed on the Tigers.

The defense travels. Missouri is allowing 17.7 points per game, 29th in the FBS, while Ole Miss is giving up 28 points per game, 109th of 138 FBS teams. The Rebels want to run it, 4.4 yards per carry and 133.2 rushing yards per game, but the Tigers allow just 2.5 yards per carry, 7th in the FBS in run defense. What worries me is that Ole Miss ranks 16th in SP+ and scores 38.8 points per game, so this is no freebie. But Missouri is scoring 35.8 points per game itself, and a one-score game either way cashes this ticket.

Nebraska vs. Oregon, 11 p.m. ET

Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7 (-118 at DraftKings)

Nebraska's defense is allowing 15.2 points per game, 17th in the FBS, and that's the kind of unit that keeps a game inside a touchdown. The Cornhuskers rank 14th nationally in SP+, one spot behind an Oregon team laying 7 at home. When two teams sit that close in the efficiency ratings, I'll take the full touchdown every time.

The offense holds up its end too. Nebraska is scoring 39.2 points per game through 6 games, 20th in the FBS, and converting 52.4% of third downs, 9th in the country. Sustained drives keep the Ducks' offense on the sideline and the clock moving, which is exactly what a 7-point dog wants. Oregon ranks 12th in SP+ and scores 41 points per game, so the Ducks can absolutely blow this open if Nebraska turns it over. But the Cornhuskers are +5 in turnover margin through 6 games, and their run defense allows 3.2 yards per carry against an Oregon ground game that averages 4.2. This stays close.