Props · NBA
NBA Player Props Tonight: 2 Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 28
By Cal Draper — Player props specialist for MLB, the NFL and the NBA. Cal works matchup splits, park factors, minutes and hit rates to find the lines books price last.
Wednesday's card is packed with 12 games, and I'm zeroing in on two props where the minutes and recent form line up. Make sure your guy is active before you bet, since NBA lineups don't lock in until close to tip.
VJ Edgecombe, 76ers vs. Pacers
Pick: VJ Edgecombe Over 5.5 Rebounds (+105 at BetRivers)
VJ Edgecombe has been strong on the glass through three games this season, pulling down 8 rebounds a night with games of 13, 7 and 4. Over his last five games going back to last season, he's put up 13, 7, 4, 7 and 9 rebounds.
He's cleared 5.5 rebounds in 7 of his last 10 games dating back to last season, and he's playing 33.6 minutes a night over his last five. The 76ers are without Dominick Barlow, who's averaged 22.1 minutes a game. Philadelphia is expected to score around 121 points in this one. The risk is that 4-rebound game he had earlier this season, which shows he can disappear on the glass.
P.J. Washington, Mavericks vs. Thunder
Pick: P.J. Washington Over 1.5 Threes (-128 at FanDuel)
Santi Aldama is out for the Mavericks, and that's 27.8 minutes a game someone else has to absorb. P.J. Washington is the obvious beneficiary, and he's already been launching from deep with 4, 0, 2 and 2 threes through four games this season.
He's averaging 2 made threes a night and has cleared 1.5 in 3 of his 4 games. Over his last 10 games going back to last season, he's hit at least 2 threes six times. Washington is playing 34.1 minutes a game over his last five, so the playing time is locked in. What concerns me is the pace. These two teams average 101.4 possessions per game, slower than the league average of 104, so there might be fewer total shots to go around.
The Play
- VJ Edgecombe OVER 5.5 Rebounds: +105
- P.J. Washington OVER 1.5 Threes: -128