Game Preview · NCAAF

Ohio State vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick: Deane's Best Bet for Saturday

By Wyatt Deane — Spent nine seasons breaking down All-22 film for a college staff. Wyatt covers the NFL and college football through matchups and personnel.

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:07 AM ET

No. 4 Ohio State goes to Indiana for a noon kickoff, and this is the game of the day on a 49-game Saturday slate. The Buckeyes are ranked higher, but the Hoosiers are 6-0, perfect at home and sitting on a +170 point differential. The game comes down to one thing: Ohio State's run game against an Indiana front that allows 2.3 yards per carry, 4th in the FBS in run defense.

The Pick

Pick: Indiana Hoosiers +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Indiana's defense is allowing 11.8 points per game, 5th in the FBS. That's a real number against real competition. The Hoosiers rank 5th nationally in SP+, the opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, so the performance holds up no matter who they've played.

Start in the trenches, because that's where Ohio State wants to live. The Buckeyes average 4.3 yards per carry and 165.7 rushing yards per game, and when they control the ground, everything else opens up. Indiana allows 2.3 yards per carry, 4th in the FBS in run defense. If the Hoosiers make Ohio State one-dimensional, this becomes a game where a field goal covers the number by itself.

The Hoosiers can score too, 40.2 points per game through 6 games, 15th in the FBS, so they can trade punches if it turns into that kind of afternoon. They're 4-0 at home and 3-0 in conference play. The market has noticed. Indiana opened +4 and the line has come down to +3, which tells you the early money respected the home team.

The honest concern is Ohio State's ceiling. The Buckeyes are scoring 42.7 points per game, 7th in the FBS, and their defense is allowing 13.2, so they can win this game going away if Indiana's offense stalls. But with a defense this good and a home crowd behind it, I like getting the full field goal. I'd play Indiana +3.