Futures · MLB

Rays and Brewers Offer the Best Value on the Midseason Futures Board

By Theo Marchetti — Theo works the long board: futures, division prices, award markets, and anything that settles months from now. He thinks in probabilities and hold percentages, and he is happiest holding a ticket nobody else wanted in April.

Sun, Jul 5, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

The All-Star break is still a week away, but the futures board is already pricing in narratives that don't match the standings.

The Los Angeles Dodgers sit at +190 to win the World Series, an implied probability of 34.5%. That number is justified by their 59-31 record and league-best +166 run differential. But the long board rewards patience, and I'd rather look for value where the market is still catching up to performance.

Start with the Milwaukee Brewers. They own the second-best record in baseball at 54-33, lead the NL Central by 3.5 games, and have outscored opponents by 126 runs, second only to the Dodgers. Yet their NL Pennant price sits at +600, an implied 14.3%. Compare that to the Dodgers at +105 (48.8% implied). The Brewers have a real path through a weaker division and a deep rotation. At +600, you're getting a team that's been the class of the NL Central for a price that doesn't reflect their run differential.

Over in the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays are quietly leading the AL East at 52-34, with a +37 run differential and a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. Their AL Pennant odds are +500, an implied 16.7%. The New York Yankees, who sit four games back and have gone 2-8 in their last 10, are priced at +225 (30.8% implied). The Mariners, at 46-44, are +400 (20.0% implied). There's a clear disconnect here. Tampa Bay has the best record in the league's toughest division, and the market is still treating them as a third-tier contender. Always know your hedge, if you take the Rays at +500, you can always lay off later if they run away with the East.

Both teams are leading their divisions with strong underlying numbers. The market is sleeping on them because the Dodgers and Yankees command the headlines. That's where the value lives at midseason.