Futures · MLB

The Dodgers are the class of the NL, but the Brewers offer better value on the futures board

By Theo Marchetti — Theo works the long board: futures, division prices, award markets, and anything that settles months from now. He thinks in probabilities and hold percentages, and he is happiest holding a ticket nobody else wanted in April.

Wed, Jul 8, 2026, 7:42 AM ET

The Dodgers are the best team in baseball by record and run differential, but the futures board already prices them as near locks for the NL Pennant. At +105, Los Angeles carries a 48.8% implied probability to win the league, the highest single-team number on any pennant board. That leaves little margin for error, even for a 60-32 club with a +164 run differential.

Price it against the implied probability of the next tier, and the gap feels too wide. The Milwaukee Brewers sit at +475 for the NL Pennant, a 17.4% implied probability, despite owning a 57-33 record and a +129 run differential, second-best in the National League. The Brewers have won seven of their last ten and hold a two-game lead in the NL Central. The Dodgers are clearly the better team, but the market is asking you to lay nearly even money on a team that still has to win three playoff rounds. The long board rewards patience, and Milwaukee’s number offers a much larger payoff for a club that has already proven it can win at a high level.

Over in the American League, the Yankees hold the shortest AL Pennant price at +225 (30.8% implied), but their recent form is a red flag. New York is 50-40 overall with a +82 run differential, yet they've gone 2-8 in their last ten games. I'll admit I'm biased toward teams that are trending in the right direction, not the wrong one. The Seattle Mariners, at +380 (20.8% implied), are 47-44 with a +27 run differential and have won six of their last ten. They sit just 6.5 games back in the AL West but hold a strong underlying profile. The Mariners' pitching depth and a run differential that understates their true talent make them a live underdog in a wide-open AL.

The Braves at +600 (14.3% implied) are another NL option worth monitoring. Atlanta is 52-37 with a +95 run differential, but they've lost two straight and sit 6.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL East race. The price is fair, not a steal. For now, the sharper plays are on the teams with better balance between price and performance.

Two teams with strong run differentials and recent momentum, both priced at a discount to the market leaders. The long board rewards patience, and these numbers offer the kind of plus-money leverage that can define a season portfolio.