Game Preview · MLB
Rays vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds and Pick for Saturday, Oct. 24
By Frankie Moss — Covers the news that moves lines: injuries, scratches and lineup changes. Frankie looks for the spots where the market overreacts to a headline.
The Rays and Brewers close out Saturday's MLB slate at 8 p.m. ET at American Family Field, with Tampa Bay already locked into the AL East crown and Milwaukee still playing at a 103-win clip. The game comes down to a pitching duel between Drew Rasmussen and Logan Henderson, two right-handers who have been excellent all season. I think the edge tilts toward the home side.
The Pick
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-120 at Caesars)
Logan Henderson has been one of the best starters in baseball this season, and I don't think the public has caught up. The Brewers righty owns a 2.47 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a 29.6% strikeout rate over 98.1 innings across 18 starts, with an 11-3 record to show for it. He's been just as sharp lately, allowing 4 earned runs over 15 innings with 17 strikeouts across his last three outings.
The lineup behind him matches up well here. Milwaukee has a .759 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 2nd in MLB, and they'll face a righty in Rasmussen. The Brewers also back Henderson with a bullpen that has a 3.40 ERA this year, 3rd in MLB, so the Rays won't get much relief once the starter exits. This is a team that's 103-59, 8-2 in its last 10 and 55-26 at home with a +214 run differential.
What worries me is Rasmussen. The Rays starter has a 2.67 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 172 innings, and he's been even better recently with 2 earned runs allowed over his last 18.2 innings. If he deals like that, Milwaukee's bats might not get many chances.
Still, I'm siding with the home team. Henderson's strikeout stuff, Milwaukee's dominance against righties and that home record give the Brewers the edge in a game that should be tight. The betting splits back it up too, with 62% of the money on Milwaukee despite just 56% of the bets.
The Play
- Milwaukee Brewers ML: -120